China's economic growth in the L type will run at ...

return >>

China's economic "annual report" came out, in 2015, 6.9% of GDP growth in line with market expectations. Data released by the Statistics Bureau yesterday showed that although the economic growth rate remained smooth, the internal structure changed significantly. Some data on behalf of the new industry development and people's livelihood showed good performance, and the industrial structure was obviously adjusted.

Based on these data, yesterday's capital market and the major institutions have shown a more optimistic attitude. In judging the future economic situation, the market basically approved the "L trend" proposed by people's daily. It is believed that China's economy will be running within a reasonable interval for a longer period of time to save energy for the next stage of development.

An official yesterday told the first financial daily that 7% is not a special and mysterious number. The GDP growth rate is a little below 7%, which not only supports China's development goals, but also makes room for transformation. And GDP growth rate of "breaking 7", overseas economists also generally expressed the calm, and stressed the urgency of the reform.

Market acceptance of L type growth

Is China's economy bottoming out? The market has been controversial for this problem. Before the publication of the "people's Daily" authoritative interpretation of the supply side reform article said that in the current global economy and domestic economic situation, the national economy can not achieve V rebound through short-term stimulus, and may experience a L growth stage.

After yesterday's data, people in the industry generally recognized the judgment, and the market reaction was also very positive. A shares rebounded strongly, the Shanghai Composite Index rose nearly 100 points to return to 3000 points.

Renmin University of China National Development Strategy Institute executive president Liu Yuanchun is expected in 2016, the economy will continue to fall, and the emergence of signs of bottoming stabilized at the end of the year, the bottom of the current round of run lengths will continue for about a year. Ren Zeping, chief macroeconomic analyst of Guotai Junan Securities, said that the L growth of China's economy in the future will be three to five years, and it is not yet to talk about the recovery.

It is worth noting that both officials and many experts yesterday emphasized the hard won and rich connotation of 6.9%. Wang Baoan, director of the Bureau of statistics, said at a news conference that the GDP growth of 6.9% in 2015 was not low. In the complex international environment, China is in a critical period of structural adjustment, China government did not adopt strong incentives, through the realization of good results, the national economy steady running steady progress of reform.

Zhu Baoliang, deputy director of the national economic center forecast department, said yesterday that China's economy has entered a new normal. Some elements that are affecting China's economy are changing. This stage of development means that our industrial structure should be adjusted, to the service industry and to the high end. The process of adjustment means that the speed of economic growth may continue to slow. But at the same time, the living standards of employment and residents will not change.

From a more positive and positive feedback, the market's recognition and understanding of China's economic reform and trend is deepening. The official told reporters in the opening paragraph that L's judgement is very artistic. On the one hand, it shows that China's economy will not appear hard landing described by overseas singing agencies. On the other hand, it also acknowledges the deceleration under objective law. More importantly, such a judgment plays an important role in focusing on the power of the whole society to focus on the transformation and upgrading. "If we can get out of the L type quickly, it is certainly better to achieve U or V, but the premise is that the Chinese government will not use a strong stimulus." He said the change in the way of growth is the primary goal.

Overseas recognition of L type growth

On ~19 January 18th, the Asian Financial Forum (AFF) held in Hongkong, China's economy has undoubtedly become one of the most concerned questions for all participants.

The growth of China's economy has reached a new low since 1990. Bernanke, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, said that China's economy is in a transition period. The decline of growth rate seems inevitable, but this does not mean that it will pose a serious threat to China's economy and the global economy. He also stressed that China's economic transformation and reform are inevitable, and the transparency of policy can better manage market expectations and curb volatility.

"China's economy is unlikely to maintain a growth of 10% for a long time, but it is not likely to remain low for a long time. In the past, China mainly relied on investment and export to stimulate the economy, but now the Chinese government has noticed that consumption should be promoted to promote economic development, increase social well-being, and make people dare to spend. Bernanke said.

"(economic growth data shows) the government has a strong determination to grow steadily, and the 6.9% figure, first of all, confirms the new normality." The general manager, director of Mizuho Securities Asia chief economist Shen Jianguang said at the same time, GDP growth data also reflects the change in economic structure turn the world upside down, on the demand side to stimulate investment and stimulate the industry's steady growth may have lost its power, "the supply side reform is the core of innovation, improve efficiency, labor productivity and tax cuts to make the private economy or individual play activity."

Chief investment officer of UBS wealth management in Greater China chief economist Hu Yifan China and on the "First Financial Daily" said, Chinese GDP was L in growth, decline in investment, consumption and export industry growth is still relatively mild partial weak environment, this year will also face the China capacity challenges, the overall macroeconomic situation may is more severe than last year, the expected GDP growth will decline to 6.5%. "Fiscal policy may play a more important role this year, and monetary policy continues to remain loose, but the risk of a hard landing is small and the whole will not be possible."